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In just 11 months, our country has had to destroy more than 1.23 million pigs due to African swine fever, not to mention the damage caused by floods. So, will the supply shortage for the 2026 Lunar New Year push pork prices up sharply?

Pig prices increase sharply every day

On the morning of December 5, speaking with VietNamNet reporters, Mr. Nguyen The Chinh, representative of the Management Board of the Ha Nam Livestock and Poultry Wholesale Market, said that pig prices are showing a strong upward trend. Currently, pig prices at this wholesale market fluctuate from 59,000-60,000 VND/kg, and two days ago, the price even jumped to 62,000-63,000 VND/kg.

This price has increased by 7,000-10,000 VND/kg compared to the end of October.

 “The price has increased but the number of pigs coming to the market is only 1,000 per day,” said Mr. Chinh, adding that this amount of goods is mainly from businesses, and farmers have almost no pigs to sell. 

Therefore, the price of live pigs in the coming time may continue to increase sharply due to the shortage of supply. In fact, on the occasion of the Lunar New Year last year, the number of live pigs coming to the market was up to 2,000 per day. With 1,000 pigs as present, it is only half of the same period last year. 

Mr. Nguyen Cong Bac, Director of Loc Phat Livestock Joint Stock Company, admitted that the current supply of pigs to the market is mainly from livestock businesses, while households have almost no goods to sell. 

Pork prices are forecast to increase on the occasion of the Lunar New Year 2026. Photo: Anh Sinh 

Previously, the African swine fever epidemic, combined with the plummeting price of live pigs for slaughter, caused farmers to suffer heavy losses.  Many farmers do not dare to enter new herds, and businesses have to reduce their herds.

“In my farms, selling live pigs in October alone caused a loss of billions of dong because at times the price dropped to 46,000-50,000 VND/kg,” said Mr. Bac.

Therefore, the price of live pigs has increased sharply in the past week. By the morning of December 5, he had sold pigs at 62,000-63,000 VND/kg. “It is no longer difficult to sell pigs like before. Now I have many traders catching them all,” he shared.

As the Lunar New Year approaches, prices could increase to 70,000 VND/kg?

The report on the production, market, and import-export of agricultural and forestry products in November and 11 months of 2025 by the Department of Digital Transformation (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment) clearly stated that in early November, the price of live pigs decreased due to consumers' fear of African swine fever.  However, the price of live pigs increased again at the end of the month due to a sharp decrease in the supply of small-scale farmers.

According to the report, in the past 11 months, our country had to destroy more than 1.23 million pigs due to African swine fever.

So, is there a shortage of pork supply for the 2026 Lunar New Year, causing prices to increase sharply?

The Director of Loc Phat Livestock Joint Stock Company commented that, on the occasion of the Lunar New Year 2026, the price of live pigs will likely increase to about 70,000 VND/kg. This is because consumption demand often increases sharply at this time, while the supply from livestock households has decreased significantly. 

According to Mr. Nguyen Kim Doan, Vice President of Dong Nai Livestock Association, in the context of a shortage of supply, the market demand during Tet season increases, so the price of live pigs will increase, but not too high. 

He said that at this time, the price of pigs is on a strong increase because the supply is relatively short (damage due to floods in the Central region and African swine fever). Moreover, households are stepping up to buy pigs weighing less than 100 kg/head from companies to fatten, reaching 120-140 kg/head, and then sell. 

 Faced with the strong attraction of the market, livestock enterprises have simultaneously adjusted prices, "releasing goods" slowly, causing the price of live pigs to continuously increase over the past week. 

However, Mr. Doan believes that this increase is unlikely to last. If the price of live pigs increases too much, the management agency will implement market stabilization measures such as increasing imports. 

In fact, recently, when the African swine fever outbreak broke out, businesses calculated that the supply was lacking and increased imports. In the first 10 months of 2025, imports of fresh, chilled or frozen pork reached 159,400 tons, worth nearly 358.3 million USD. Compared to the same period last year, imports of pork products increased sharply by 95.7% in volume and 90.8% in value. 

As for the Lunar New Year market, there are often two peak periods that push pork prices up sharply.  According to Mr. Doan, the first wave occurred about a month before Tet, when food production enterprises increased purchases to prepare supplies. The second peak wave occurred about a week before Tet, when people's demand for fresh food increased dramatically. 

During these two periods, the price of live pigs often tends to escalate. It is forecasted that around the time of the Lunar New Year 2026, the price may reach about 70,000 VND/kg, a level considered to be harmonious for both farmers and consumers. 

"The price of live pigs is unlikely to increase as sharply as in 2020 because although the supply is in short supply, it is not at a serious level," he commented. 

At a regular press conference on December 4, Mr. Phung Duc Tien, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment, informed that the pig herd is recovering. In recent days, pork prices have increased quite high, but not to the extent that it will affect the Lunar New Year.  However, Mr. Tien emphasized that efforts must be made to ensure food supply to contribute to stabilizing the CPI.